Welcome to the weekly EPL tipping blog from Bet With Aus bringing you free football tips for the EPL.
Week 25 of the English Premier League features a historic fixture that rarely disappoints and has added spice this time around due to the Suarez-Evra incident; Manchester United vs Liverpool is just one of the games included in our selection of football tips for you to take a look at.
Manchester United vs Liverpool – Football Tips
Manchester United have a good home record this season, with only inexplicable losses to City and Blackburn showing up as anomalistic blips. They have won four of their last five home games, scoring sixteen goals in the process and conceding just four, including three against Blackburn. Liverpool have won just one of their last four away games – a 0-3 win against a Wolves side who just cannot keep a clean sheet at home. They will welcome back Luis Suarez, who got a short run-out against Spurs on Monday, and will surely start following Andy Carroll’s inept performances.
United have won eight of their 12 home games by more than one goal, including four of their last five. The champions have recorded victories by 2 or more goals against Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea this season. They face a Liverpool side whose away form against the top sides is a mixed bag; 3-0 and 4-0 defeats to Manchester City and Spurs respectively, followed by victories at Chelsea and Arsenal. As with their home form, Liverpool are struggling for goals and will come up against a United side averaging 2.91 goals per home game. After witnessing United’s fight back against Chelsea, and then Liverpool’s lacklustre performance at home to Spurs I can only see one winner here.
The first of our football tips is United -0.75 @ 1.89 with Betfair
Blackburn Rovers vs QPR – Football Tips
Blackburn’s home record this season is poor; they’ve managed just nine points from the 36 available and have lost four of their last five home games, including games against sides occupying 12th, 15th and 18th positions in the table. Blackburn have scored as many home goals as Swansea, who have the 7th best home record, but have conceded more than three times as many, and it is there that their problem lies. QPR’s away record is marginally better than Blackburn’s home, but they are without an away win in six attempts and have won just one of their last 12 games home and away.
Blackburn score a decent amount of goals at Ewood park, but they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their 12 home league games this season, conceding an average of two goals per game. QPR will be looking to their new strikers to deliver the goods in this game, although they will be relying on Bobby Zamora as Cisse sits this one out through suspension. QPR haven’t kept an away clean sheet in their last nine games, and have scored in five of their seven matches away to sides in the bottom half.
Given this information, we’re going for both teams to score at $1.62 with Sportingbet.
- Courtesy of the Guardian
Everton vs Chelsea – Football Tips
Everton have really struggled for goals this season, scoring more than once on just three occasions and in none of their last six. They’ve lost just one of their last five home games, however, and have beaten Manchester City during this run, although they have also drawn with Blackburn and Norwich so inconsistency is rife. Chelsea have won just one of their last five away games and even then it took a last minute Frank Lampard goal to take three points from struggling Wolves. How demoralised they’ll be after a surrendering a 3-0 lead to Manchester United could be significant.
As the season has progressed Everton have become more and more difficult to beat at home, moreover, they have become increasingly difficult to score more than a single goal against – only Bolton have managed to do so in the last 8 games at Goodison Park. Everton have also managed to find the net in each of their last five home games. Chelsea have not lost an away game since a 1-0 defeat at QPR on October 23rd, but they have drawn four of their last five and will be reeling from the draw with United on Sunday.
There’s a lot of fight in this Everton side and I can’t see Chelsea scoring more than one. As such, we’re going for Everton +0.25 @ 1.93
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United – Football Tips
Tottenham have been very impressive at home this season with only Manchester City collecting more points on home soil. Spurs haven’t lost at White Hart Lane since 28th of August when the aforementioned City destroyed them 1-5; since then Spurs have managed nine wins from eleven games. Newcastle United’s away record is very respectable but much of this is down to their early season form. They have lost three of their last five away games, conceding 12 goals in the process despite keeping two clean sheets along the way.
Spurs have scored in every single home game this season while Newcastle have scored in all but one of their away games. The main thing putting me off the over 2.5 goals is the fact that five of Tottenham’s last six home games have contained under 2.5 goal, a stat which surprised me. Spurs have conceded in their last two matches at home, while Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of their games away to sides in the top half.
For this football tip, we are going to go with both teams to score at 1.75 with Sportingbet.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City – Football Tips
Aston Villa have a fairly poor home record, recording just three wins from their 12 home fixtures. They are without a win in six at Villa Park, earning just two points from a possible 18, both coming in their last two games. They are struggling for goals although Darren Bent is beginning to get into the swing of things. Manchester City have a good away record, although much like with Newcastle, this is down to early season form. They have record just one victory in their last six games on the road, during which time they have managed just three goals and have suffered defeat to Chelsea, Sunderland and, most recently, Everton.
As mentioned, Villa don’t tend to score too many at home, but they’re not exactly shipping them in at the other end either. 58% of Aston Villa’s home games have ended with under 2.5 goals and they may struggle to score against Manchester City’s mean defence. 58% of City’s away games actually contain over 2.5 goals, but if we’re looking at recent form, five of their last six away games have been contained under 2.5 goals, including each of their last four.
This match does depend on which Man City decide to turn up, but given the stats and form we’re tipping under 2.5 goals at 1.98 with Betfair for the last of our football tips.
Author – Stan Jackson
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Good tips once again mate, I see you got 4 from 5 again this week. Newcastle were atrocious against Tottenham, I thought that one was a certainty but Newcastle just didn't turn up!
What do you recommend as a betting amount on these tips to make a decent profit?
Hi there, yeah we've had another nice week with the tipping. As far as staking goes it depends on a couple of things:
Firstly, what can you afford to lose. If things go pear shaped for whatever reason you need to be financially able to deal with this.
Secondly, what do you consider a decent profit?! I mean, if you'd have staked $10 per tip from the two posts written so far, your profit would $32.65, for an ROI of about 33%, which is decent. So, not massive profits but I prefer gradual increases to big swings in wins and losses.
Hope the long-winded answer was worth the wait?!
Thanks for that, I can see where you're coming from.
If you were to make $100 profit every week based on these tips that would work out to be over $5k, whereas with the multibets you might be lucky and get a few up over the year but unless you're betting a fair amount you probably won't get near that total anyway. Something to ponder, lol.