What are break-evens? How do they work? And why should I pay attention to this when selecting my side? These questions, plus a lot more, need to be considered when you are weighing up which player to select now, in round 3, and so forth.
So what are break-evens and how do they work? We’ll try to explain it as simply as we can. Break-evens are the score a player will need to score to maintain his AFL fantasy price. If player X is valued at $500,000 and has a break-even of 100 then player X must score 100 points to remain at $500,000. If the player scores 25 then the player is going to decrease in value. If he scores 150 then his price will increase in value. There is a complex formula that works out the break-even if you are that way inclined. Break-evens change from week to week. Break-evens are a player’s average to price and what they need to maintain that price. The only exception to this rule is players who have played less than three games. Each player is given a price at the start of the year. If a player is $120,000 then he is expected to score about 25-30 points a week. If that player scores 60, 70, 80 then he has an average of 70 and his value will increase. It will continue to increase until what he scores weekly matches the newly increased price. This can take anywhere from three weeks to ten weeks.
Now that you have the basic information we will explain to you why you need to be looking at this when selecting your side. Some players enter this season with hefty price tags and also hefty break-evens. These are the players you want to stay clear of until this break-even comes down. The trade off that comes with a lower break-even is a lower price and this is when you can upgrade your mid level players to premium players with low break-evens. Continually evaluating break-evens on every player you have will allow you to sell high and buy low. The ultimate strategy to making sure your side is packed full of premium players at the end of the year.
AFL Fantasy Break-Even Example
Here is an example that we are currently considering this year. We really want to pick T. Goldstein as our No.1 Ruck, but at $630,000 and a break-even of 138, it’s a little too high. So what we are looking for is another ruckmen who has upside to increase his value. That player is K. Tippett in our opinion. Currently valued at $445,000 and a break-even of 55. He averaged 107 in his last six games and has a good opportunity to maintain around that average. This will increase his price. We’re also hoping Todd has a few quieter games in the first few weeks and his price comes down. This will take the $185,000 price difference to hopefully under the $100,000 – $50,000 value and we now have a premium ruck for a bottom basement price. Each week we will watch the break-evens, price increases and opponent to finally decide to pull the trigger.